Should I buy bitcoin at 20 000 USD per bitcoin this is the most common question I have been asked the last few weeks
Unfortunately only you can decide this. We each have a risk profile and an orientation. I have shared my Investment hypothesis in the medium article I shared here. This works for me but I have a bag of bitcoin purchased between 5000 and 12 000 USD.
I also earn an income so this money is not required for living costs.
So I am really OK with huge price corrections and fluctuations. I have been down so many bitcoin rabbit holes studying and learning about this everything from doing a 6 months MOOC via Stanford on bitcoin development to learning about the origins of money, how civilisations organise around different technologies (I.e. The organisational structures always map to the technology structures), I have studied how societies and civilisations collapse so that I can read the signs early. I have done many MOOC (massively open online courses) on gamification and lastly I have been experimenting with tokenomics, innovation and creativity for 20 years. On top of that I spent 3 years investing in and coaching startups as well as going through multi year Venture capitalist provess to get investment in our own company.
Once I knew enough about the bitcoin fundamentals I started to look at its market fundamentals how do I know when to sell at the peak being the absolute most important.
And now the altcoin forest.
I have spent 3 months using the various Defi platforms to buy and sell coins, to lend money, to borrow money, to stake my coins in a pool in return for a share of the pool. I have a real first hand experience of the problems still to be solved and how far it is from anything like mass adoption. I understand how important Defi is to the entire crypto ecosystem and how huge it actually is (https://medium.com/@6c03c8e154cc/4c9fb45dfde?sk)
I am learning how to read price charts and the basics of technical analysis so as to be able to select entry and exit positions for small cap alt coins that I have invested in or am looking to invest in. I have studied charts and the stories of the biggest winners Eth, XRP etc in previous bull runs as well as which ones survived and are now thriving Eth.
Natvienna my wife is an artist a singer and a womb priestess she communicates with and is guided by animals, plants and the great mother. She has spent years learning to read these subtle signals, learning to follow her inner guidance and to trust her own capacity to journey into the debth of her knowing. We have also both committed our lives and our love to serving her in the great awakening that is taking place.
What I am trying to say is that all of this gives us a certain risk profile and a certain reason for being here.
We are continually reconnecting with her and recentering so that we are not caught up in the Fear and Greed that results from thinking one outcome is better than another.
With this we reduce our chances of buying a shitcoin. The chances of being scammed go down, the chances of being greedy and staying in too long go down.
So we have an investment hypothesis based around these skills, our ages, our risk apetite, our capacity to execute our strategy etc. We have been training for the last month taking profit when INJ is pumping as per our strategy, staying calm when a coin with good fundamentals is bottoming, we are training to remain centered even in the peak of the mania that happens when people are FOMOing in at the top because their friends have turned 1000 USD into 100 000 USD. When everyone is suddenly a genius including your Uber drivee for all their smart investments and people think they are rich and that this thing is going to the moon tomorrow and we will all be the next billionaires.
On top of that we are able to manage how it is would be to lose everything we have invested and what that would mean for Natvienna and I.
So based on this we have a strategy which matches this profile it has to be different for you because you are doing you, you have a different belief system a different risk profile a different purpose.
My hypothesis is based on bitcoin being at the beginning of a bull run like 2012 when it passed its previous all time high of 30 USD and then tan to 1000 USD or 2016 when we reached all time high of 1000 before going to 20 000.
I have an estimate of the top of his bull run based purely on bitcoin as a store of value excluding the programmability and metcalfs law of the network effect effect resulting from adoption and ignoring the incredible value that the rest of the crypto ecosystem brings to bitcoin and assuming the world does not enter into an economic crisis causing glhyoer inflation ie deflation. All of these things just add to the price prediction. So the lowest possible fair value of bitcoin is around 100 000 USD. If this turns out not to be true and btc goes to 30 000 we are still very happy.
The greatest probability from all of our analysis of Bitcoin and money and all the things that are used as stores of value bitcoin will be worth more 100 000 by the end of 2021 and over 1 000 000 end of 2025.1 that is assuming only bitcoin exists as it is right now without any of the rest of the crypto world without PayPal, mastercard, Square cash and others offering payment rails to crypto. This is without Defi making it easy to earn 10 pct returns on your bitcoin holdings.
For us the probability is so high that we are focusing our attention on accumulating as much bitcoin as we can in the next 3 years. We are betting everything on this and we are OK financially, emotionally and in relationship with each other and the earth that if this huge bet does not pay off and we lose everything we are OK.
The big risk is that governments somehow make it illegal to hold bitcoin and its price plummets for a period of time because no one wants to go to jail. From my viewpoint this would be a short term slump (4–5 years at most) as this type of protectionism and rejection of the market would be a real signal of the end of the current supposedly capitalist, central hierarchically organised social systems. This action by governments would be a trigger for me to HODL even more bitcoin hopefully at 2012 prices while ensuring that I have the skills required to work on line and live in countries where it is legal to have bitcoin or even better countries like Estonia, Malaysia, Singapore and Switzerland where they encourage all things blockchain. We would go deep there and keep working with this next version of crypto technology, HODLing more bitcoin, helping create the new financial systems and waiting for the Drakonian regulators (Governments) to to crumble. There is often one last big fight back by the outgoing system before it crumbles think Soviet Union and SA late 1980’s so I think there is a non zero chance that this could happen.
It often seems impossible for democratic, previously capitalistic Western governments to fail in this way (although after the last American elections I think we are all reassessing our opinions on this). I am sure that to most Romans it seemed impossible that the Roman Empire would fail at the peak of its power.
All the signs of this type of monumental shift in human consciousness are there if you look, there is a very real possibility of crypto offering us a smooth transition to a new possibility, a chance to discover an entirely new way of using the technology of sharing our creativity with each other and being rewarded for it. For me crypto is exploring a new way organising groups of humans to come together, share and thereby enhance their human ingenuity using tokenised reward systems that ensure that all parties contributing to the Ecosystem are fairly rewarded. This is achieved via the game mechanics (tokenomics) programmed into the money of each tiny interacting Ecosystem in such a way the system adjust adapts and learns how to be more creative by distributing rewards even more fairly without any central authorities in control. The superset of all of this is the creation of a technologically enhanced learning Ecosystem of creators offering their greatest creations through decentralised transparent programmable value exchanges.
This is so close to my heart that I am happy to work on this underground if need be while the existing hegemony beats itself to death.
I do however hope and believe that we can turn this ship around before we crash off the edge of the ecological and financial disaster that our current financial systems are stearing us towards and I am prepared for the case where the drunken politicians at the steering wheel keep going straight for the edge suppressing and ignoring all warning signs that are currently screaming at us.